Global Financial/Economic Crisis and Tourist Arrival Forecasts for Hong Kong

This paper examines the impact of the global financial/economic crisis on the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of 10 major source markets for the period 2009-2012. To capture the influence of this crisis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) is used to calculate the demand elasticities, and four scenarios (ranging from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic) are created to examine the possible impacts of changes in source market income levels and the price of tourism on the demand for Hong Kong tourism in these markets. The demand elasticities reveal that the economic conditions in the source markets are the most significant determinants of demand for Hong Kong tourism. In the most pessimistic scenario, total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 27.6 million in 2009 and 26.0 million in 2012, whereas in the most optimistic scenario, these numbers are 30.7 million in 2009 and 33 million in 2012. In all of the scenarios, tourist arrivals from the long-haul markets are expected to suffer more losses relative to the short-haul markets during the 2009-2012 forecasting period. The forecasts also indicate that the market shares of the source markets will change slightly over this period, with Mainland China, Taiwan and Japan constituting the dominant markets for Hong Kong tourism.