The case study of bura of 1st and 3rd February 2007

Two cases when the operational forecast seriously underestimated the wind speed maxima are analysed. The first one in the night between 1(st) and 2(nd) February 2007 and the second one in the evening of 3(rd) February 2007. The two cases are analyzed using measured data from Split and Makarska automatic stations as well as vertical soundings from Zagreb and Zadar and ALADIN model simulations. For the purpose of this study, ALADIN 72 hour forecast was run on 2 km resolution using the complete set of physics parametrizations, hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic dynamics. Results show the potential benefit of nonhydrostatic dynamics for operational forecast does not lie in improvement of the 10 m wind forecast as much as in forecasting clear air turbulence associated with the lee waves.