Predicting large amounts of accrued payables to redeem open-end funds

The predicting model of great amounts of redemption (GAR) and large amounts of redemption (LAR) for open-end funds are proposed. According to real situation, the probability calculation formulas of large amounts of redemption (LAR) are deduced with normal distribution and T distribution. We also provide the analysis about relations on probability of large amounts of redemption (LAR) and great amounts of redemption (GAR) to the mean and variance of redemption and mean of purchasing. It is shown that the probability of large amounts redemption would increase with the fluctuation increasing of redemption and the probability of large amounts redemption occurring would decrease with the average amount of purchase in the fund increasing. On the basis of the model, the paper puts forward the relevant method of risk management and some relevant advice for Fund Company avoiding liquidity risk combining the china current market environment, which manages open-end fund liquidity risk faced with.