Sensitivity analysis of mesoscale simulations to physics parameterizations over the Belgian North Sea using Weather Research and Forecasting - Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model offers a multitude of physics parameterizations to study and analyze the different atmospheric processes and dynamics that are observed in the Earth's atmosphere. However, the suitability of a WRF model setup is known to be highly sensitive to the type of weather phenomena and the type and combination of physics parameterizations. A multi-event sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify general trends and suitable WRF physics setups for three extreme weather events identified to be potentially harmful for the operation and maintenance of wind farms located in the Belgian offshore concession zone. The events considered are Storm Ciara on 10 February 2020, a low-pressure system on 24 December 2020, and a trough passage on 27 June 2020. A total of 12 WRF simulations per event are performed to study the effect of the update interval of lateral boundary conditions and different combinations of physics parameterizations (planetary boundary layer, PBL; cumulus; and microphysics). Specifically, the update interval of ERAS lateral boundary conditions is varied between hourly and 3-hourly. Physics parameterizations are varied between three PBL schemes (Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino, MYNN; scale-aware Shin-Hong; and scale-aware Zhang), four cumulus schemes (Kain-Fritsch, Grell-Devenyi, scale-aware Grell-Freitas, and multi-scale Kain-Fritsch), and three microphysics schemes (WRF Single-Moment five-class scheme, WSMS; Thompson; and Morrison). The simulated wind direction and wind speed are compared qualitatively and quantitatively to operational supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data. Overall, a definitive best-case setup common to all three events is not identified in this study. For wind direction and wind speed, the best-case setups are identified to employ scale-aware PBL schemes. These are most often driven by hourly update intervals of lateral boundary conditions as opposed to 3-hourly update intervals, although it is only in the case of Storm Ciara that significant differences are observed. Scale-aware cumulus schemes are identified to produce better results when combined with scale-aware PBL schemes, specifically for Storm Ciara and the trough passage cases. However, for the low-pressure-system case this trend is not observed. No clear trend in utilizing higher-order microphysics parameterization considering the combinations of WRF setups in this study is found in all cases. Overall, the combination of PBL, cumulus, and microphysics schemes is found to be highly sensitive to the type of extreme weather event. Qualitatively, precipitation fields are found to be highly sensitive to model setup and the type of weather phenomena.