Plan 2014: The historical evolution of Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River regulation

In the 1950s Ontario and New York built hydroelectric structures in the St. Lawrence River, while the federal governments of Canada and the United States constructed the St. Lawrence Seaway to work in conjunction with these power works. The engineering works that enabled this megaproject, approved by the International Joint Commission (IJC), were also designed to regulate water levels and flows on the upper St. Lawrence and Lake Ontario, and a method of regulation was established to set outflows, named Plan 1958-D. This paper covers the initial establishment of this regulation plan, identifying its weaknesses. Though the new water regime provided benefits for certain interests (primarily power, navigation and property owners), it could not always adequately cope with high and low water supplies into the system outside those originally anticipated. Moreover, as is shown, the creation of the St. Lawrence dual project and the connected method of regulation had a range of negative ecological impacts and harmed other interests - including the Mohawk groups in the territory that straddles the project area. By the late twentieth century, serious consideration was being given to replacing Plan 1958-D. This paper explores the technical study, negotiations and political intrigue that involved hundreds if not thousands of professionals, public servants, riparians and commercial interests in both countries that eventually led to a new method of regulation. On 6 December 2016 the governments of Canada and the United States formally gave concurrence to a revised Order of Approval from the IJC that replaced Plan 1958-D with Plan 2014. The rationale for these changes is explored, as well as the challenges faced by the IJC and its technical advisory groups, and the lessons that can be learned are identified.