Risk-Taking or Risk-Aversive: Understanding North Korea's Foreign Policy of Brinkmanship

One interpretation of North Korea's behavior regarding weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is to view it as a foreign policy of brinkmanship. In this paper, we attempt to explain this brinkmanship of North Korea using perception-based prospect theory. In particular, we analyze the contrast between North Korea's cooperative policies during the later Clinton era and its confrontational policies during the early period of the George W. Bush administration. Employing the content analysis method, we analyze Nodong Shinmun, the official newspaper of North Korea. Our analyses show that North Korea utilizes a cooperative policy when it perceives that its national security is improving, and engages in brinkmanship when it perceives that its security is threatened.