Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada

被引:3
|
作者
Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa [1 ,2 ]
Spence, Kelsey L. [3 ]
Ogden, Nicholas H. [1 ,2 ]
Fazil, Aamir [1 ,2 ]
Turgeon, Patricia [1 ,2 ]
Otten, Ainsley [1 ,2 ]
Waddell, Lisa A. [1 ,2 ]
Ng, Victoria [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Infect Dis Prevent & Control Branch, Natl Microbiol Lab, Guelph, ON, Canada
[2] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Infect Dis Prevent & Control Branch, Natl Microbiol Lab, St Hyacinthe, PQ, Canada
[3] Univ Guelph, Ontario Vet Coll, Dept Populat Med, Guelph, ON, Canada
来源
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE | 2021年 / 8卷 / 11期
关键词
Great Barrington Declaration; COVID-19; vaccination; agent-based model; age-stratified interventions; Canada; INTERVENTIONS;
D O I
10.1098/rsos.210834
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions.
引用
下载
收藏
页数:12
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Modelling the impact of shutdowns on resurging SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
    Ng, Victoria
    Fazil, Aamir
    Waddell, Lisa A.
    Turgeon, Patricia
    Otten, Ainsley
    Ogden, Nicholas H.
    ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE, 2021, 8 (05):
  • [2] Modelling the impact of Omicron and emerging variants on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and public health burden
    Epke A. Le Rutte
    Andrew J. Shattock
    Nakul Chitnis
    Sherrie L. Kelly
    Melissa A. Penny
    Communications Medicine, 2
  • [3] Modelling the impact of Omicron and emerging variants on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and public health burden
    Le Rutte, Epke A.
    Shattock, Andrew J.
    Chitnis, Nakul
    Kelly, Sherrie L.
    Penny, Melissa A.
    COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE, 2022, 2 (01):
  • [4] Quantifying the impact of public health protection measures on the spread of SARS-CoV-2
    Dimeglio, Chloe
    Loubes, Jean-Michel
    Mansuy, Jean-Michel
    Izopet, Jacques
    JOURNAL OF INFECTION, 2021, 82 (03) : 414 - 415
  • [5] Monitoring the proportion of the population infected by SARS-CoV-2 using age-stratified hospitalisation and serological data: a modelling study
    Hoze, Nathanael
    Paireau, Juliette
    Lapidus, Nathanael
    Kiem, Cecile Tran
    Salje, Henrik
    Severi, Gianluca
    Touvier, Mathilde
    Zins, Marie
    Lamballerie, Xavier de
    Levy-Bruhl, Daniel
    Carrat, Fabrice
    Cauchemez, Simon
    LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH, 2021, 6 (06): : E408 - E415
  • [6] Public Health Measures and the Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2
    Inglesby, Thomas V.
    JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 2020, 323 (21): : 2186 - 2187
  • [7] Age-Stratified Risk of Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination
    Krzywicka, Katarzyna
    van de Munckhof, Anita
    van Kammen, Mayte Sanchez
    Heldner, Mirjam R.
    Jood, Katarina
    Lindgren, Erik
    Tatlisumak, Turgut
    Putaala, Jukka
    Kremer Hovinga, Johanna A.
    Middeldorp, Saskia
    Levi, Marcel M.
    Cordonnier, Charlotte
    Arnold, Marcel
    Zwinderman, Aeilko H.
    Ferro, Jose M.
    Coutinho, Jonathan M.
    de Sousa, Diana Aguiar
    NEUROLOGY, 2022, 98 (07) : E759 - E768
  • [8] Impact of age on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare workers
    Corral-Gudino, Luis
    Del-Amo-Merino, Maria Piedad
    Abadia-Otero, Jesica
    Merino-Velasco, Irene
    Lorenzo-Fernandez, Yolanda
    Garcia-Cruces-Mendez, Jesus
    Eiros-Bouza, Jose Maria
    Dominguez-Gil Gonzalez, Marta
    WIENER KLINISCHE WOCHENSCHRIFT, 2024, 136 (15-16) : 439 - 448
  • [9] SARS-CoV-2: public health measures for managing the transition to endemicity
    Byrne, Paula
    Harding-Edgar, Louisa
    Pollock, Allyson M.
    JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF MEDICINE, 2022, 115 (05) : 165 - 168
  • [10] Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada
    Ng, Victoria
    Fazil, Aamir
    Waddell, Lisa A.
    Bancej, Christina
    Turgeon, Patricia
    Otten, Ainsley
    Atchessi, Nicole
    Ogden, Nicholas H.
    CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, 2020, 192 (37) : E1053 - E1064