Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China

With the growth in population over the past decades, China's food demand has been increasing. However, crops are facing greater water stress with the rising temperature and increasing drought in future. Therefore, identifying potential crop yield and its driving factors is necessary to ensure continued food production. In the present study, we estimated the potential yields of maize and wheat in China, with and without water limits, from 1985 to 2015 using a simple generic crop model (SIMPLE). We then investigated how climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) drove the spatial and temporal variation of yield gaps (quantified as the difference between potential yields with and without water limits). We found an increasing trend in the water limited yield gap of maize in northern China (3.9 +/- 4.3 kg ha(-1) yr(-2)) and wheat in central China (2.6 +/- 2.4 kg ha(-1) yr(-2)). The temporal trends of maize and wheat yield gaps in China were mainly related to precipitation and temperature. However, the spatial variation in maize yield gap trends was mainly related to the variations in precipitation, whereas for wheat it was attributed to changes in temperature or solar radiation. Upgrading irrigation infrastructure and management techniques or spatially adjusting crop types could help closing the yield gap of wheat in some zones.