Financial Stress and Risk for Entry into Medicaid Among Older Adults

Background and Objectives: Spending in the Medicaid program is a significant concern to both state and federal policy makers. Medicaid spending is driven by program enrollment and services use. Older adults with high health care needs incur a disproportionate proportion of program spending. This analysis identifies factors that place older Medicare beneficiaries at increased risk for entering into Medicaid. Research Design and Methods: We use multinomial logistic regression and the 2011-2017 National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) to examine the risks among older Medicare beneficiaries for entering into Medicaid over a 6-year follow-up period. We examine both time-invariant and time-varying factors to measure the impact of social and health and functioning changes at older ages. Results: The risk of entry into Medicaid was higher for older adults who relocated to a nursing home (relative risk ratio [RRR]: 7.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.33-11.26) or other residential care setting (RRR: 1.36; 95% CI: 0.96-1.92) compared to those who remained in traditional community settings. Older adults who reported skipping a meal in the last month because there was not enough money to buy food were 2.4 times (95% CI: 1.10-5.21) more likely to enter Medicaid than those who did not. Similarly, older adults who reported not having enough money to pay household utility bills in the last year were 1.89 times (95% CI: 1.08-3.30) more likely to enter Medicaid. Discussion and Implications: Study findings suggest that trouble paying for basic needs increases the risk of entry into Medicaid. Further research is required to examine whether addressing these needs through improved access to social services that enable older adults to live safely in their home may delay or mitigate entry into Medicaid.