Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

被引:27
|
作者
Carter, TR
机构
[1] Agric. Research Centre of Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Box 503
来源
关键词
climate change; temperature; precipitation; carbon dioxide; sea-level; uncertainty; baseline; Finland;
D O I
10.23986/afsci.72743
中图分类号
S [农业科学];
学科分类号
09 ;
摘要
Future changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global and regional climate change are of increasing concern to policy makers, planners and the public. However, predictions of these changes are uncertain. In the absence of single, firm predictions, the next best approach is to identify sets of plausible future conditions termed scenarios. This paper focuses on the development of climate change scenarios for northern high latitude regions. Three methods of scenario development can be identified: use of analogues having conditions similar to those expected in the study region, application of general circulation me del results, and composite methods that combine information from different sources. A composite approach has been used to produce scenarios of temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide and sea-level change for Finland up to 2100, as part of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Tools for applying these scenarios in impact assessment studies, including stochastic weather generators and spatial downscaling techniques, are also examined. The SILMU scenarios attempt to capture uncertainties both in future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and in the global climate response to these emissions. Two types of scenario were developed: (i) simple ''policy-oriented'' scenarios and (ii) detailed ''scientific'' scenarios. These are compared with new model estimates of future climate and recent observed changes in climate over certain high latitude regions.
引用
收藏
页码:235 / 249
页数:15
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