Research on the ECC of Chengdu-Chongqing's Urban Agglomeration in China Based on System Dynamics

The ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is a prerequisite for China's regional and green developments. Since the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) is an important economic area, it is important to study the development of its ECC in order to establish its green development and to promote its regionally coordinated development in China. This paper first establishes the ECC evaluation index system based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and AHP-TOPSIS. Secondly, it estimates the ECC of the CCUA between 2000 and 2018. Thirdly, it constructs a system dynamics model of the ECC and, finally, it simulates and predicts the ECC from 2021 to 2050 based on shared socioeconomic pathways. The results show that the ECC indices of 16 cities in the CCUA have increased significantly in 18 years and the annual ECC indices from 2021 to 2050 all show significant growth trends. This paper will show that the CCUA should select the most suitable development mode to be adopted in the different periods. The development should follow SSP2 from 2021 to 2025, SSP1 from 2026 to 2035, and the development characteristics of SSP5 should be referred to at levels between 2036 and 2050, based on the CCUA's overall development in accordance with SSP1.