Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia

被引:11
|
作者
Mody, Ashoka [3 ]
Taylor, Mark P. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Warwick, Barclays Global Investors, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
[2] Ctr Econ Policy Res, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
[3] Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA
关键词
currency crisis; contagion; vulnerability; dynamic factor analysis;
D O I
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.06.012
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is interpreted as regional vulnerability to crisis. We find that regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets, as well as the US high-yield spread, were positively correlated with regional vulnerability. Individual country EMPIs are also explained by regional factors, with country-specific factors and trade linkages playing little role. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
引用
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页码:1292 / 1310
页数:19
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