A long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from September 2011 to August 2016. The likely location, time, and evolution of the next great earthquake with M aparts per thousandyen 7.7 in Kamchatka

We consider the results from the ongoing 2010-2011 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the pattern of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We develop a forecast for the next 5 years, from September 2011 to August 2016, for all segments of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc earthquake-generating zone. For 20 segments we predict the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A(10)), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probability 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, and the maximum possible magnitudes and probability of occurrence for great (M a parts per thousand yen 7.7) earthquakes. This study serves as another confirmation that it is entirely necessary to continue the work in seismic retrofitting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii. Independent additional estimates of the likely location, time, and evolution of the next M a parts per thousand yen 7.7 earthquake in Kamchatka were obtained by considering same-type scenarios in the evolution of foreshock sequences, main shocks, and aftershocks for the last three great earthquakes in Kamchatka: November 22, 1969; December 15, 1971, and December 5, 1997. The giant Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011 (M-w = 9, M = 8.9) filled the seismic gap as identified in our 2005 forecast for northeastern Japan.