Combat process simulation and attrition forecasting based on system dynamics and Multi-agent modeling

The purpose of this research is to develop a tool for all medical support and war rescue researchers that can predict and analyze the total number of attritions in combat, the temporal and spatial distribution of attritions, and the composition of the wounded. All the parameters in the tool are adjustable for the users to personalize the settings and to simulate different combat environments according to their needs. This research adopts a method that combines system dynamics and intelligent agent simulations. First, a combat process simulation and an attrition prediction model are constructed using system dynamics methods. The model converts the degrees of combat damage of the various targets of the red and blue forces into attrition data by combining specific combat missions, analyzing the factors influencing the combat, weapon performance, and protection capability of the two forces, and constructing a causal loop and stock flow relationship for the engagement process. On this basis, an intelligent-agent modeling method is used to obtain the total attrition from the combat attrition prediction model, and to decompose the total attrition, which includes only time and quantity, into each specific individual combatant. By establishing a correspondence relationship between the degree of damage to the combat target and the various types of combat injuries, these individual combatants can be assigned with specific combat injury information according to specific proportions. By simulating each individual combatant of the attrition personnel and assigning a specific injury status, the attrition flow is converted into a casualty flow. In the process, a scientific basis is provided for formulating a medical support plan, raising logistic personnel and resources, properly allocating medical resources, and effectively implementing injury treatment.