Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Moroccan Stock Market

Firstly, this paper is distinctive in that it employs a lengthy sample period that provides a comprehensive view of how market efficiency has evolved throughout the annals of the Moroccan stock market. This paper aims to evaluate both the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) and the time-varying return predictability of the MASI. It predominantly uses the daily closing price of the MASI (Moroccan all-share index) from January 2007 to December 2021. In addition, eight distinct assessments representing primarily two distinct categories (linear and non-linear) have been utilized to determine the level of market efficacy in this study. Consequently, following the adaptive market theory, the findings of this study indicate periods of efficiency followed by periods of inefficiency. In addition, we discover evidence that the stock market's economic foundations and volatility are related to return predictability.