Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model

被引：152

作者：

Brijs, Tom ^{[1
]}

Karlis, Dimitris ^{[2
]}

Wets, Geert ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hasselt Univ, Transportat Res Inst, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium

[2] Athens Univ Econ & Business, Dept Stat, Athens 10434, Greece

来源：

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION | 2008年 / 40卷 / 03期

关键词：

crashes; accident analysis; weather conditions; INAR;

D O I：

10.1016/j.aap.2008.01.001

中图分类号：

TB18 [人体工程学];

学科分类号：

1201 ;

摘要：

In previous research, significant effects of weather conditions on car crashes have been found. However, most studies use monthly or yearly data and only few studies are available analyzing the impact of weather conditions on daily car crash counts. Furthermore, the studies that are available on a daily level do not explicitly model the data in a time-series context, hereby ignoring the temporal serial correlation that may be present in the data. In this paper, we introduce an integer autoregressive model for modelling count data with time interdependencies. The model is applied to daily car crash data, metereological data and traffic exposure data from the Netherlands aiming at examining the risk impact of weather conditions on the observed counts. The results show that several assumptions related to the effect of weather conditions on crash counts are found to be significant in the data and that if serial temporal correlation is not accounted for in the model, this may produce biased results. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1180 / 1190

页数：11

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