LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT FORECAST ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSION IN ANHUI PROVINCE (CHINA)

With the accelerating process of urbanization, carbon emission reduction plays an indispensable role in the development of low-carbon economy. The paper puts forward the research topic of carbon emission in Anhui Province under low-carbon development. According to the relevant energy consumption data of Anhui Province from 2010 to 2019, the carbon emission was calculated. Based on the GM (1, 1) model, the growth trend of carbon emission in the next ten years (2020-2029) is predicted, and the main influencing factors of carbon emission in Anhui Province were analyzed by using the grey correlation analysis method. The results show that the annual carbon emissions in Anhui Province will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down; Energy efficiency, urbanization rate, GDP of the secondary industry, GDP per capita and GDP of the primary industry had a decreasing effect on carbon emissions. Based on the research results, the paper proposes the following viewpoints to reverse the carbon emission dilemma of Anhui Province, namely, optimizing the energy consumption structure, improving the energy utilization efficiency, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, creating a low-carbon industrial system of new urbanization pattern, and promoting the green sustainable development.