A probabilistic examination of the ultimate strength of cold-formed steel elements

The statistical characteristics (mean and variance) of the ultimate strength of cold-formed steel plates in uniform compression and pure bending are calculated and compared to deterministic approximations. Three quantities: plate thickness, longitudinal flexural residual stress magnitude and first mode imperfection magnitude, are treated as random variables. Based on existing experimental data, appropriate probability distributions are determined for the three random variables. The ultimate strength calculations are performed numerically using the finite element method (FEM). The statistical characteristics are calculated using two methods: Monte Carlo simulation and Taylor series approximation. The results are compared to the deterministic design approach of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Specification for the design of cold-formed structural members. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.