Prospective association between use of electronic cigarettes and use of conventional cigarettes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the association between e-cigarette use and subsequent initiation or recurrence of cigarette smoking. Data sources A systematic literature search was finalised on 11 November 2019 using PubMed (including MEDLINE), EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, PubMed Health, NICE Evidence Search, PROSPERO, CRD and PsycInfo. Study selection Studies were included if meeting the following criteria: reporting empirical results; longitudinal observational design with a minimum of 3 months of follow-up; including general population samples; allowing for the comparison between users and nonusers of e-cigarettes. Studies rated as having high risk of bias were excluded. Studies were independently assessed by at least two authors. The procedures described by PRISMA were followed, and the quality of evidence was rated using GRADE. Data synthesis 30 longitudinal studies from 22 different cohorts assessing e-cigarette use among nonsmokers or never-smokers at baseline, and subsequent use of cigarette smoking at follow-up, were included in this review. A random-effects meta-analysis based on 89076 participants showed a pooled unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of cigarette smoking among baseline nonsmoker e-cigarette users compared with nonusers of 4.68 (CI 3.64-6.02), while the adjusted OR was 3.37 (CI 2.68-4.24). These results were consistent irrespective of whether the outcome was measured as ever-smoking or as past 30-day smoking. The evidence was graded as moderate. Conclusions Use of e-cigarettes may predict the initiation or recurrence of cigarette smoking.