Risk Assessment of Ex-Post Transaction Cost in Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling

The transaction cost (TC) escalation is the pervasive problem in the construction industry, which is continuously a threat to maintaining the life cycle cost of projects. Researchers have described the reality of risk for economic transactions. This study has taken the risk as a phenomenon to explore its influence on ex-post TC in construction projects. A questionnaire survey was undertaken from industry professionals to assess the risk of ex-post TC escalation in public-sector construction projects. In total, 475 surveys were conducted in Pakistan and used in the analysis. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) and the measurement and structural model was validated to determine the influence of risk on ex-post TC. The final SEM results show that internal and external risk, including sub hypothesized risks, positively influence TC. The weight of relative importance shows technical risk (23.82%) and environmental risk (22.88%) as significant sub-contributors from internal and external sources, respectively. This study recommends substantial investment in human capacity development to reduce the deficiencies in the ex-ante phase of the projects that help to reduce the risk of ex-post TC escalation. It also suggests the adoption of strict policies on contingency claims, and recommends nontraditional ways of monitoring to overcome the risk of ex-post TC. This study's results provide valuable information for industry professionals and practitioners to maintain life cycle costs as a contribution to sustainable construction.