Integrate Risk From Climate Change in China Under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C.

Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. Despite the commitment of the Paris Agreement, the integrate research on climate change risk combining risk-causing factors and risk-bearing bodies, the regional differences in climate impacts are still missing. In this paper we provide a quantitative assessment of hazards and socioeconomic risks of extreme events, risks of risk-bearing bodies in China under global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C based on future climate scenarios, and quantitative evaluation theory for climate change risk. For severe heat waves, hazards might significantly intensify. Affected population under 2.0 degrees C warming might increase by more than 60% compared to that of 1.5 degrees C. Hazards of severe droughts and floods might strengthen under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Economic losses might double between warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C, and the population affected by severe floods might continuously increase. Under the integrate effects of multiple disasters, the regions with high population and economic risks would be concentrated in eastern China. The scope would gradually expand to the west with socioeconomic development and intensification of extreme events. High ecological risks might be concentrated in the southern regions of the Yangtze River Basin, while the ecological risk in northern China would expand. High agriculture yield risks might be distributed mainly in south of the North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, south of the Yangtze River, and west of Northwest China, and the risk levels might continuously increase. Plain Language Summary. Based on the climate and socioeconomic scenario data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, risks from climate change were identified under different warming levels, considering socioeconomic damage and ecosystem and food production losses. The relatively developed areas of eastern China exhibit high risks, and the risks show a westward and northward expansion trend. Socioeconomic damage, natural ecosystem, and food production losses would increase with socioeconomic development and intensification of global warming. We believe that a quantitative assessment of climate change risk should integrate climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems. These results can provide decision-making support for governments and a database for adapting to climate change.