A County-Level Risk Assessment of the Deep Water Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico

This paper undertakes a risk assessment of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico impacted by the 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill. The study evaluates hazard risk from the perspective of community resilience, social capital, and access to resources. The proposed hazard risk location model re-specifies risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and coping ability. The model employs an autoregressive function and a threshold analysis to develop a place-based risk assessment. The results indicate that spatial variation in risk levels coincides with locational differences in social capital across the study area. Geographical proximity to the spill, population density, and unemployment rate are also key factors in determining overall risk. Furthermore, temporal variation in risk levels is determined by exposure to previous hazard events and changes in the business cycle.