Can stale oil price news predict stock returns?

We hand-collect time-series data on positive and negative oil price news from 100 news sources from around the world, covering 59,129 news articles on oil prices. Using time-series predictive regression models estimated for 45 countries, we show that: (a) positive and negative news predict stock returns for at most 12 countries for which the oil price does not predict returns; and (b) together the three oil price measures predict returns for at most 23/45 countries. Therefore, oil price news turns out to be more powerful in predicting returns in a horserace with oil price. We show that the ability of oil to predict returns is through the discount rate and cash flow channels. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.