Statistic analysis of swarm activities around the Boso Peninsula, Japan: Slow slip events beneath Tokyo Bay?

Seismicity reflects underground stress states, satisfying scaling laws such as Gutenberg-Richter law and Omori-Utsu law. Standard seismicity models based on these scaling laws, such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, are useful to identify swarm anomalies in seismicity catalogs. Llenos et al. (2009) applied the ETAS model to swarms triggered by slow slip events (SSEs) and found that stressing rate controls the background seismicity mu suggesting that swarms can be utilized to monitor stress change due to various aseismic processes. Following their work, we analyze the 2002 and 2007 Boso swarms triggered by the Boso SSEs (Ozawa et al., 2007) and a swarm beneath Tokyo Bay, in June 2005. A single ETAS model cannot explain the high seismicity during a swarm. Although a combination of three ETAS models for pre-swarm, swarm, and post-swarm periods better explains the data, a simpler model with an ETAS model and a boxcar function is even better. Similarity of the seismicity model, together with the locations and focal mechanisms, suggests that three swarms share a common source of stress, and the possibility of undetected SSE beneath Tokyo Bay.