Total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio is independently associated with CKD progression

Purpose Although dyslipidemia can cause kidney damage, whether it independently contributes to the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains controversial. The research aims to evaluate the predictive value of serum lipids and their ratios in the progression of CKD. Methods The retrospective, case-control study included 380 adult subjects with CKD stage 3-4 (G3-4) at baseline. The end point of follow-up was the progression of CKD, defined as a composite of renal function rapid decline [an annual estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline > 5 mL/min/1.73 m(2)] or the new-onset end-stage renal disease (ESRD) [eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)]. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association between CKD progression and lipid parameters. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive power of lipid parameters in the progression of CKD. Results Over a median follow-up of 3.0 years, 96 participants (25.3%) developed CKD progression. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, logarithm-transformed urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (log ACR) [odds ratio (OR) 1.834;95% confidence interval (CI) 1.253-2.685; P = 0.002] and total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TC/HDL-C) [OR 1.345; 95% CI 1.079-1.677; P = 0.008] were independently associated with CKD progression. The ROC curve showed the combined predictor of ACR and TC/HDL-C ratio was acceptable for CKD progression diagnosis (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.716, sensitivity 50.0%, specificity 84.2%), and the cut-off value was - 0.98. Conclusions The combination of TC/HDL-C ratio and ACR had predictive value in the progression of CKD, and may help identify the high-risk population with CKD.