Amplitude-frequency fluctuations of the seasonal cycle, temperature anomalies, and long-range persistence of climate records

The presence of long-term persistence of climate records on scales from 2 to 15 yr has been reported in the literature, even if the universality of this result is controversial. In the present paper results from monthly temperature records measured for about 250 yr in Prague and Milan are reported. Because of the nonlinear and nonstationary character of temperature time series the seasonal contribution has been identified through the empirical mode decomposition. We find that the seasonal component of the climate records is characterized by some time scales showing both amplitude and phase fluctuations. By using a more suitable definition of temperature anomalies, and thus excluding persistence effects due to seasonal oscillations and trends, the occurrence of long-term persistence has been investigated through the detrended fluctuation analysis. Our results indicate persistence on scales from 3 to 10 yr with similar values for the detrended fluctuation analysis indices.