MARKET SHARE FORECASTING OF MOBILE TELEPHONY IN SERBIA

被引：0
|
作者：
Radojicic, Valentina [1 ]
Markovic, Goran [1 ]
Dogatovic, Vesna Radonjic [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Belgrade, Fac Transport & Traff Engn, Belgrade 11001, Serbia
来源：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECOND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT ENGINEERING (ICTTE) | 2014年
关键词：
Bass model; diffusion model; direct method; iterative method; forecasting; mobile telephony; network infrastructure; DIFFUSION-MODELS;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
U [交通运输];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0823 ;
摘要：
The analysis of mobile phone diffusion process has an important role for additional development of mobile networks. This paper provides results comparison of mostly used Bass diffusion model to forecast diffusion speed of mobile telephony subscriptions with two popular time series methods (Iterative and Direct methods) for predicting future values, which use explicit relationships between demand and various determining factors. Our goal is to estimate time to reach the saturation level at Serbian mobile market. The obtained results may be a useful managerial tool to analyze diffusion shape of the forthcoming generations of mobile telephony as well as for building appropriate strategic plans for necessary supporting network infrastructure in Serbia.
引用
收藏
页码：590 / 599
页数：10
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