Modelling the response of permanent grasslands to climate change

Understanding how permanent grasslands respond to climate changes is essential to show which options would potentially allow agriculture to fulfill its multiple tasks in a warmer and likely drier future. We study how an increase in temperature and aridity induced by global climate change alters the relation diversity-productivity-stability in permanent grasslands. Results of numerical experiments with the model DynaGraM show a decline in summer productivity and changes of the botanical composition in the long term, with specific responses depending on management. The simulations suggest that extensive management forms can maintain vegetation dynamics in spite of increasing aridity, as opposed to intensive management forms, that will have to be adapted to ensure productivity and the provision of ecosystem services.