Long-term survival and predictors of relapse and survival after liver transplantation for alcoholic liver disease

Objective: Studies of predictive factors of alcohol recidivism and survival post-LT are not up-to-date. With evolving LT activity and with longer-term outcomes becoming increasingly available, re-evaluating post-LT outcomes is imperative. We analyzed recent data on survival, alcohol recurrence and predictive factors. Methods: We compared long-term survival among 159 consecutive ALD patients transplanted 2003-2016 with 159 propensity-score matched controls transplanted for non-ALD. Alcohol 'slips' (occasional lapse) and relapse to moderate or harmful drinking were assessed from medical records and structured forms filled in by home-district physicians, and analyzed by competing-risk and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results: Patient and graft survival at 10 years were 75 and 69% in the ALD group and 65 and 63% in the control group (p=.06 and .36). In ALD patients, the 10-year cumulative rate of alcohol slip was 52% and of relapse, 37%. Duration of pre-LT abstinence (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99) and a history of prior alcohol relapses (HR 3.05, 95% CI 1.41-6.60) were significant predictors of relapse, but failed to predict death/graft loss. Patients with <6 months abstinence relapsed sooner than those with 7-24 months abstinence, but 10-year relapse rates were similar (40-50%). Ten-year relapse rate with 2-5-year pre-LT abstinence was 21%, and with >5-year abstinence, 0%. In patients with <6 months pre-LT abstinence, years of heavy drinking, prior addiction treatments, and lack of children predicted inferior survival. Conclusions: Although 37% of our ALD patients relapsed to drinking by 10 years post-LT, 14-year survival was not significantly different from survival in non-ALD patients. Short duration of pre-LT abstinence and prior relapses predicted post-LT relapse.