Modeling the effect of temperature on survival rate of Listeria monocytogenes in yogurt

The aim of the study was to (i) evaluate the behavior of Listeria monocytogenes in a commercially produced yogurt, (ii) determine the survival/inactivation rates of L. monocytogenes during cold storage of yogurt and (iii) to generate primary and secondary mathematical models to predict the behavior of these bacteria during storage at different temperatures. The samples of yogurt were inoculated with the mixture of three L. monocytogenes strains and stored at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15 degrees C for 16 days. The number of listeriae was determined after 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14 and 16 days of storage. From each sample a series of decimal dilutions were prepared and plated onto ALOA agar (agar for Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti). It was found that applied temperature and storage time significantly influenced the survival rate of listeriae (p<0.01). The number of L. monocytogenes in all the samples decreased linearly with storage time. The slowest decrease in the number of the bacteria was found in the samples stored at 6 degrees C (D-10 value = 243.9 h), whereas the highest reduction in the number of the bacteria was observed in the samples stored at 15 degrees C (D-10 value = 87.0 h). The number of L. monocytogenes was correlated with the pH value of the samples (p<0.01). The natural logarithm of the mean survival/inactivation rates of L. monocytogenes calculated from the primary model was fitted to two secondary models, namely linear and polynomial. Mathematical equations obtained from both secondary models can be applied as a tool for the prediction of the survival/inactivation rate of L. monocytogenes in yogurt stored under temperature range from 3 to 15 degrees C, however, the polynomial model gave a better fit to the experimental data.