A PRELIMINARY METHODOLOGY FOR BROKEN RAIL CAUSED FREIGHT TRAIN DERAILMENT RISK ANALYSIS

被引：0
|
作者：
Ben-Gera, Tal [1 ]
He, Jiabo [1 ]
Liu, Xiang [1 ]
机构：
[1] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 100 Brett Rd, Piscataway Township, NJ 08854 USA
来源：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ASME JOINT RAIL CONFERENCE, 2016 | 2016年
关键词：
D O I：
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中图分类号：
TH [机械、仪表工业];
学科分类号：
0802 ;
摘要：
This paper investigates the influence of rail age, annual traffic density, and inspection frequency on broken-rail-caused train derailment risk. First, we estimate the probability of a broken-rail-caused train derailment based on a sequence of stochastic processes including rail defect formation, growth, detection and the likelihood that a broken rail causes a derailment. In addition to derailment frequency, we also estimate derailment severity, which is measured by the average number of railcars derailed per train derailment, based on FRA-reportable train derailment data. The preliminary risk analysis model provides a quantitative approach to understand broken rail risk, and potentially aid in development of effective ways to mitigate derailment risk.
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页数：4
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