Spatial Land Use Optimization Using the CLUE-S Model: a Case Study in the Keerqinzuoyihou Banner, China

Structural contradictions among cities, agriculture, animal husbandry, and ecosystems in agriculture/ pastoral zones have become increasingly prominent. This study analyzed land use change for a typical farming-pastoral interlacing area in the Keerqinzuoyihou Banner, China, using land use status data from 2009 to 2017. The drivers of land use changes were determined using logistic regression analysis. The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent (CLUE-S) model simulated four scenarios (i.e., natural evolution, ecological, economic, and social benefits maximization), and there were three key findings. First, land use structure mainly consisted of cropland, forest, and grassland; these accounted for nearly 90% of the total land area. There was a rapid increase in cultivated and built-up areas from 2009 to 2017. Second, the Kappa coefficient of the CLUE-S simulated results and actual land use was 0.936, indicating high model accuracy and applicability for simulating spatial land use distribution in the study area. Third, under the natural evolution scenario, forest, grassland, water bodies, sandy land, and unused land decreased from 2017 to 2025, whereas cropland and built-up land increased. This provides a reference to guide government land use planning and measures to improve land use efficiency and optimize the industrial structure.