A Degredation Interval Prediction Method Based on RBF Neural Network

In the area of reliability, remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction can help people establish reasonable maintenance strategies and then implement maintenance activities at a right time. In this paper, RBF neural network approach is applied in the degradation prediction process of a certain microwave component. A degradation model that describes how a certain degradation parameter changes over time is established and then the performance degradation trend can be obtained based on this model. And then a confidence interval prediction can be obtained based on traditional probability theory, which proves that the results have reached a high confidence level. Finally, the BP neural network approach is introduced as a comparison, and results indicate that the proposed method has higher precision and stability.