The analysis of recreational vessel groundings in Croatian waters of the Adriatic Sea

Recreational vessel accidents during summer seasons in Adriatic Sea frequently occur when seasonal traffic significantly increases. In this paper, the database containing data on recreational vessel groundings from 2013 up to 2019 has been analyzed. Data distributions have been calculated, and characteristic patterns are noted. Statistical auto-regressive model SARIMAX has been used to create existing grounding data time-series, and to forecast trends for the next five years. The findings show that majority of groundings happen during night hours, suggesting that dominant causes of those accidents are human error related. Weather conditions have also been detected as one of causes of groundings, particularly north-east winds and thunderstorms. The slowly increasing trend of annual groundings is forecasted and recommendation to improve skipper's education and training has been given to mitigate future increase.