The value of early methane mitigation in preserving Arctic summer sea ice

被引:4
|
作者
Sun, Tianyi [1 ]
Ocko, Ilissa B. [1 ]
Hamburg, Steven P. [1 ]
机构
[1] Environm Def Fund, New York, NY 10010 USA
关键词
methane mitigation; sea ice loss; early action; climate change; climate policy; LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS; CARBON-CYCLE MODELS; TIPPING ELEMENTS; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN; SIMPLER MODEL; IMPACTS; FUTURE; WELL;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/ac4f10
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
A growing body of literature has identified methane mitigation as a key component of limiting the rate and extent of global warming. However, little is known about how methane mitigation can benefit other critical aspects of the climate system. This study explores the value of early methane mitigation in addition to carbon dioxide mitigation in helping avert an approaching and concerning climate event: the near-complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice. While drastic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions will ultimately control the fate of Arctic summer sea ice, we show that simultaneous early deployment of feasible methane mitigation measures is essential to avoiding the loss of Arctic summer sea ice this century. In fact, the benefit of combined methane and carbon dioxide mitigation on reducing the likelihood of a seasonally ice-free Arctic can be greater than the simple sum of benefits from two independent greenhouse gas policies. The extent to which methane mitigation can help preserve Arctic summer sea ice depends on the implementation timeline. The benefit of methane mitigation is maximized when all technically feasible measures are implemented within this decade, and it decreases with each decade of delay in implementation due to its influence on end-of-century temperature. A key insight is that methane mitigation substantially lowers the risk of losing Arctic summer sea ice across varying levels of concomitant carbon dioxide mitigation. This analysis provides further evidence of the value of early methane mitigation and the need to consider its benefits beyond reduced global temperature and improved air quality.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] The Impact of Arctic Winter Infrared Radiation on Early Summer Sea Ice
    Park, Hyo-Seok
    Lee, Sukyoung
    Kosaka, Yu
    Son, Seok-Woo
    Kim, Sang-Woo
    JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2015, 28 (15) : 6281 - 6296
  • [2] Connecting early summer cloud-controlled sunlight and late summer sea ice in the Arctic
    Choi, Yong-Sang
    Kim, Baek-Min
    Hur, Sun-Kyong
    Kim, Seong-Joong
    Kim, Joo-Hong
    Ho, Chang-Hoi
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2014, 119 (19) : 11087 - 11099
  • [3] Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice
    Tietsche, S.
    Notz, D.
    Jungclaus, J. H.
    Marotzke, J.
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2011, 38
  • [4] Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice
    Massonnet, F.
    Fichefet, T.
    Goosse, H.
    Bitz, C. M.
    Philippon-Berthier, G.
    Holland, M. M.
    Barriat, P. -Y.
    CRYOSPHERE, 2012, 6 (06): : 1383 - 1394
  • [5] Summer snow on Arctic sea ice modulated by the Arctic Oscillation
    Webster, Melinda A.
    Riihela, Aku
    Kacimi, Sahra
    Ballinger, Thomas J.
    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward
    Parker, Chelsea L.
    Boisvert, Linette
    NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2024, 17 (10) : 995 - 1002
  • [6] Summer retreat of Arctic sea ice: Role of summer winds
    Ogi, Masayo
    Rigor, Ignatius G.
    McPhee, Miles G.
    Wallace, John M.
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2008, 35 (24)
  • [7] The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent
    Zhang, Yuanyuan
    Cheng, Xiao
    Liu, Jiping
    Hui, Fengming
    CRYOSPHERE, 2018, 12 (12): : 3747 - 3757
  • [8] Mitigation implications of an ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean
    Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel
    Neumann, Marc B.
    Arto, Inaki
    Capellan-Perez, Inigo
    Faria, Sergio H.
    EARTHS FUTURE, 2017, 5 (01) : 59 - 66
  • [9] Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
    Yu, Lejiang
    Zhong, Shiyuan
    Vihma, Timo
    Sun, Bo
    NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, 2021, 4 (01)
  • [10] Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
    Lejiang Yu
    Shiyuan Zhong
    Timo Vihma
    Bo Sun
    npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4