Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited

被引：20

作者：

Bouakez, Hafedh ^{[1
]}

Kano, Takashi ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] HEC Montreal, CIRPEE, Montreal, PQ H3T 2A7, Canada

[2] Bank Canada, Int Dept, Ottawa, ON K1A OG9, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS | 2008年 / 30卷 / 01期

关键词：

current account; terms of trade; present-value model;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmacro.2006.12.003

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates whether extending the intertemporal model of the current account to allow for variations in the terms of trade improves its ability to fit the data. It derives a testable present-value representation of the current account that encompasses the Harberger-Laursen-Metzier (HLM) effect, according to which a temporary rise in the terms of trade improves the current account. The present-value model is tested using data from Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The results show that terms-of-trade movements do not affect the current account in a significant way, and that, in two of the three cases, the model is strongly rejected by the data. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：260 / 281

页数：22

共 36 条

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