Computation and Analysis of an Offshore Wind Power Forecast: Towards a Better Assessment of Offshore Wind Power Plant Aerodynamics

For the first time, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with the Wind Farm Parameterization (WFP) modeling method is utilized for a short-range wind power forecast simulation of 48 h of an offshore wind farm with 100 turbines located on the east coast of the China Yellow Sea. The effects of the horizontal multi-grid downsize method were deployed and investigated on this simulation computation. The simulation was validated with the field data from the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system, and the results showed that the horizontal mesh downsize method improved the accuracy of wind speed and then wind power forecast. Meanwhile, the wind power plant aerodynamics with turbine wake and sea-land shore effects were investigated, where the wake effects from the wind farm prolonged several miles downstream, evaluated at two wind speeds of 7 m/s and 10 m/s instances captured from the 48 h of simulation. At the same time, it was interesting to find some sea-land atmospheric effects with wind speed oscillation, especially at the higher wind speed condition. Finally, the research results show that the WRF + WFP model for the wind power forecast for production operation may not be ready at this stage; however, they show that the methodology helps to evaluate the wind power plant aerodynamics with wake effects and micrometeorology of the sea-land interconnection region. This plant aerodynamics study set the stage for a wake turbine interaction study in the future, such as one utilizing the NREL FAST.FARM tool.