Climate change adaptation and food production in Canada: some research challenges

Canada is a vast country and faces different types of weather and climatic patterns. As a result, Canadian agriculture is a spatially heterogeneous industry and therefore, would face differing impacts of climate change in different regions. Depending on the region of study, although, such impacts would vary with different climate characteristics, differing enterprise combinations and the adaptation potential of producers may also have a significant role to play. In general, as average temperatures increase in northern latitudes, for many crops particularly in the northern regions of Canada (more specifically in the Prairie region); such impacts are estimated to be positive for the shorter term through higher yields. New production opportunities are expected to emerge; however, such knowledge is somewhat scarce. These positive benefits of climate change would be reduced when extreme events strike - droughts and floods are expected to become more frequent and severe. Although the impacts of one-year or back-to-back droughts have been estimated, such is not the case with the impact longer period drought might have on producers and the economic system in Canada. For livestock, due to a negative impact on forage, pastures, and feed grain production, coupled with higher temperatures, some livestock productivity is expected to suffer in some regions. However, empirical studies on this impact are lacking. Among various challenges in meeting knowledge gaps some stand out. For example, many studies have employed different methodologies with respect to assumption of level of climate change, prediction period, inclusion of CO2 fertilization effect, shift of agro-ecosystems northwards, inclusion or exclusion of extreme events, among others. This makes comparison of regional impacts difficult. Another major gap is in terms of identifying the exact nature of new opportunities that would be created by the changing climate. As Canadian agriculture depends heavily on exports of commodities, the industry would be affected not only by the impacts of climate change locally but also those elsewhere in the globe. A systematic study of identifying future markets for Canadian agricultural products is needed. In terms of adaptation, conversion of dryland agriculture to irrigation is suggested to be a common recommendation. However, due to the fact that climate change would also affect water availability as glaciers retreat (affecting water availability on the Prairies), and aquifers have lower yields, the potential for such adaptations would be low and expensive. Climate change would also require knowledge of adaptation measures that can be undertaken over the short to long term. Such knowledge is also very scarce.