An approach to dynamic route travel time forecast on urban expressway network

ITS (intelligent transport systems) is considered very important for solving present urban traffic problem such as traffic congestion, traffic environment traffic accident, etc. Traffic information service also is an important Dart to ITS and traveller's route choice. The method which use state space model and AR (auto-regressive) model will be applied to forecast traffic flow and route travel time service at future time in this paper. Traffic flow and route travel time will be dynamically forecasted on real time by these models on the basis of observed traffic now in time series. Firstly, state space model and AR model will be established with observed traffic now on urban expressway network Secondly, models will be also used to forecast traffic flow and route travel time on urban expressway network. Finally, forecast results will be given and analyzed in this paper.