Diagnostic accuracy of first and early second trimester multiple biomarkers for prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus: a multivariate longitudinal approach

Background Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) is an underlying cause of maternal and newborn morbidity and mortality all around the world. Timely diagnosis of GDM plays an important role in reducing its adverse consequences and burden. This study aimed to determine diagnostic accuracy of multiple indicators in complete blood count (CBC) test for early prediction of GDM. Methods In this prospective cohort study, the data from 600 pregnant women was analyzed. In the study sample, the two-step approach was utilized for the diagnosis of GDM at 24-28 weeks of gestation. We also used the repeated measures of hemoglobin (Hb), hematocrit (Hct), fasting blood sugar (FBS) and red blood cell count (RBC) in the first and early second trimesters of pregnancy as the longitudinal multiple indicators for early diagnosis of GDM. The classification of pregnant women to GDM and non-GDM groups was performed using a statistical technique based on the random-effects modeling framework. Results Among the sample, 49 women (8.2%) were diagnosed with GDM. In the first and early second trimester of pregnancy, the mean HcT, Hb and FBS of women with GDM was significantly higher than non-GDMs (P < 0.001). The concurrent use of multiple longitudinal data from HcT, Hb, RBC and FBS in the first and early second trimester of pregnancy resulted in a sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) of 87%, 70% and 83%, respectively, for early prediction of GDM. Conclusions In general, our findings showed that the concurrent use of repeated measures data on Hct, Hb, FBS and RBC in the first and early second trimester of pregnancy might be utilized as an acceptable tool to predict GDM earlier in pregnancy.