Interactive Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Construction Engineering and Management

Risk analysis is critical to the success of construction projects. Traditionally, probabilistic risk analysis is based on the Monte Carlo simulation. Because of the difficulty of teaching and implementing the Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk analysis has not been widely used in the industry, although it is more desirable. This paper developed an interactive probabilistic risk analysis tool called RISK (Real-time Interactive Simulation Kit) that makes the Monte Carlo simulation of project risks unprecedentedly easy. RISK was tested in a capstone class at the University of Texas at San Antonio Result showed that RISK is an effective tool in teaching risk analysis for construction engineering and management. It is also expected to improve the utilization of the probabilistic risk analysis in the industry by providing graduates with relevant skills.