Meeting the Need of a Rural State for Primary Care Physicians: A Health Care Reform Challenge

Objective: Determine current and projected needs for primary care physicians in Kentucky and explore education and workforce policies that can contribute to overcoming physician shortages. Methods: Need and demand for physicians were estimated using an adaptation of the Physician Supply Model and Physician Requirements Model developed by US Health Resources and Services Administration. Data sources included the Kentucky Board of Medical Licensure, Area Resource File, US Census Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, Kentucky State Data Center, and National Resident Matching Program. Results: Between 1527 and 1888 additional primary care physicians are required to meet projected needs and demands by 2020. These requirements are substantially more than current supply trends suggest will be available. Conclusion: No single policy can solve the shortage of primary care physicians; therefore, multiple approaches must be used at the local, state, and national levels. A new system of care, patient centering, to reform the health care system is also suggested.