Systemic Risks: A Homomorphic Approach on the Basis of Complexity Science

被引:13
|
作者
Lucas, Klaus [1 ,2 ]
Renn, Ortwin [2 ,3 ]
Jaeger, Carlo [2 ,4 ,6 ]
Yang, Saini [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Aachen, Inst Tech Thermodynam, D-52074 Aachen, Germany
[2] IASS, D-14467 Potsdam, Germany
[3] Univ Stuttgart, Econ & Social Sci Dept, D-106037 Stuttgart, Germany
[4] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[5] Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disasters, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[6] Global Climate Forum, D-10178 Berlin, Germany
关键词
Complexity science; Integrated risk governance; Multiagent modeling; Systemic risks; CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES; PEDESTRIAN BEHAVIOR; NEED;
D O I
10.1007/s13753-018-0185-6
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Although the notion of systemic risk gained prominence with respect to financial systems, it is a generic term that refers to risks of increasing importance in many domainsrisks that cannot be tackled by conventional techniques of risk management and governance. We build on a domain-overarching definition of systemic risks by highlighting crucial properties that distinguish them from conventional risks and plain disasters. References to typical examples from various domains are included. Common features of systemic risks in different domainssuch as the role of agents and emergence phenomena, tipping and cascading, parameters indicating instability, and historicityturn out to be more than noncommittal empirical observations. Rather these features can be related to fundamental theory for relatively simple and well-understood systems in physics and chemistry. A crucial mechanism is the breakdown of macroscopic patterns of whole systems due to feedback reinforcing actions of agents on the microlevel, where the reinforcement is triggered by boundary conditions moving beyond critical tipping points. Throughout the whole article, emphasis is placed on the role of complexity science as a basis for unifying the phenomena of systemic risks in widely different domains.
引用
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页码:292 / 305
页数:14
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