Probabilistic modeling of service life for structures subjected to chlorides

Most current service life models of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride loading produce only a single deterministic time to first corrosion. Some feel that probabilistic modeling of corrosion is difficult to understand, tediously slow to calculate, and of limited value due to strong dependency on the assumed input parameters. Using a linearized analysis method, verified by a modified Monte Carlo technique, this paper shows that answers of acceptable accuracy can be obtained with only a few seconds of calculation on an inexpensive computer The method is explained and shown with examples. Using such a technique, it is felt that probabilistic analyses of time to first corrosion can be demystified and achieve regular usage.