The evolution of glaciers and debris flows in the vicinity of Elbrus, central Caucasus

A long-term, comprehensive study of the Baksan River basin in the central Caucasus has established the chronology of debris flows during the last two thousand years. This study has revealed the origin and relative phase of strong debris flows with respect to the glacial cycle. It is shown that intensive glacial retreats activate the strongest, most catastrophic debris flows. By causing the rapid, destructive thermal erosion of small glaciers, the modem warming trend in alpine regions has stimulated the formation of large, catastrophic debris flows.