Quantitative Information Security Risk Estimation Using Probabilistic Attack Graphs

This paper proposes an approach, called pwnPr3d, for quantitatively estimating information security risk in ICT systems. Unlike many other risk analysis approaches that rely heavily on manual work and security expertise, this approach comes with built-in security risk analysis capabilities. pwnPr3d combines a network architecture modeling language and a probabilistic inference engine to automatically generate an attack graph, making it possible to identify threats along with the likelihood of these threats exploiting a vulnerability. After defining the value of information assets to their organization with regards to confidentiality, integrity and availability breaches, pwnPr3d allows users to automatically quantify information security risk over time, depending on the possible progression of the attacker. As a result, pwnPr3d provides stakeholders in organizations with a holistic approach that both allows high-level overview and technical details.