Effect of thermospheric contraction on remediation of the near-Earth space debris environment

Historically, computer simulations of the near-Earth space debris environment have provided a basis for international debris mitigation guidelines and, today, continue to influence international debate on debris environment remediation and active debris removal. Approximately 22,500 objects larger than 10 cm are known to exist in Earth orbit, and less than 5% of these are operational payloads, with the remaining population classed as space debris. These objects represent a significant risk to satellite operations because of the possibility of damaging or catastrophic collisions, as demonstrated by the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in February 2009. Indeed, recent computer simulations have suggested that the current population in low Earth orbit (LEO) has reached a sufficient density at some altitudes for collision activity there to continue even in the absence of new launches. Even with the widespread adoption of debris mitigation guidelines, the growth of the LEO population, in particular, is expected to result in eight or nine collisions among cataloged objects in the next 40 years. With a new study using the University of Southampton's space debris model, entitled DAMAGE, we show that the effectiveness of debris mitigation and removal strategies to constrain the growth of the LEO debris population could be more than halved because of a long-term future decline in global thermospheric density. However, increasing debris remediation efforts can reverse the impact of this negative density trend.