Predictors of modern contraceptive use among women and men in Uganda: a population-level analysis

Objective(s) Despite substantial and rapid improvements in contraceptive uptake in Uganda, many women continue to have unmet need for contraception. As factors affecting contraceptive use are dynamic and complex, this study seeks to identify current predictors and provide effect size estimates of contraceptive use among women and men in Uganda. Study design A nationally representative cross-sectional population survey, using secondary data from Uganda's 2016 Demographic and Health Survey. Stratified by sex, weighted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were derived from a suite of potential predictor variables. Predictive abilities were assessed via 10-fold cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Setting Uganda. Participants All women aged 15-49 years who were permanent residents of the selected households or stayed in the household the night before the survey were eligible to participate. In one-third of the sampled households, all men aged 15-54 years who met the same residence criteria were also eligible. Primary outcome measures Modern contraceptive use. Results Overall, 4914 (26.6%) women and 1897 (35.6%) men reported using a modern contraceptive method. For women and men, both demographic and proximate variables were significantly associated with contraceptive use, although notable differences in effect sizes existed between sexes-especially for age, level of education and parity. Predictively, the multivariable model was acceptable for women with AUC=0.714 (95% CI 0.704 to 0.720) but less so for men with AUC=0.654 (95% CI 0.636 to 0.666). Conclusion(s) Contemporary significant predictors of contraceptive use among women and men were reported, thereby enabling key Ugandan subpopulations who would benefit from more targeted family planning initiatives to be identified. However, the acceptable AUC for women and modest AUC for men suggest that other important unmeasured predictors may exist. Nonetheless, these evidence-based findings remain important for informing future programmatic and policy directions for family planning in Uganda.