Early identification of non-remission in first-episode psychosis in a two-year outcome study

Objective: To identify predictors of non-remission in first-episode, non-affective psychosis. Method: During 4 years, we recruited 301 patients consecutively. Information about first remission at 3 months was available for 299 and at 2 years for 293 cases. Symptomatic and social outcomes were assessed at 3 months, 1 and 2 years. Results: One hundred and twenty-nine patients (43%) remained psychotic at 3 months and 48 patients (16.4%) remained psychotic over 2 years. When we compared premorbid and baseline data for the three groups, the non-remitted (n = 48), remitted for < 6 months (n = 38) and for more than 6 months (n = 207), duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) was the only variable that significantly differentiated the groups (median DUP: 25.5, 14.4 and 6.0 weeks, respectively). Three months univariate predictors of non-remission were being single, longer DUP, core schizophrenia, and less excitative and more negative symptoms at baseline. Two-year predictors were younger age, being single and male, deteriorating premorbid social functioning, longer DUP and core schizophrenia. In multivariate analyses DUP, negative and excitative symptoms predicted non-remission at 3 months, but only DUP predicted at 2 years. Conclusion: Long DUP predicted both 3 month and 2-year non-remission rates in first-episode psychosis.