High-speed Rail's impact on airline demand and air carbon emissions in China

We construct an extensive data set comprising all air and high-speed rail (HSR) routes in China. We estimate that commercial air travel emits seven times the carbon emissions per passenger kilometer than HSR. Results demonstrate a strong link between air travel and air carbon emissions. Increases in China's HSR routes have contributed to significant and large negative impacts on air travel and accompanying air carbon emissions. Mode substitution from air travel to HSR has led to an 18% decline in air carbon emissions in recent years, saving the environment an annual 12 million metric tons in net carbon emissions. We determine that a $35 carbon tax could generate an additional decline of air carbon emission of 6 million tons and a net reduction of 5.3 million tons. Hence, to lower carbon emissions, policymakers can consider a carbon tax and transport policies to encourage a modal shift from air travel to HSR.